重庆旅游商品市场现状及开发策略

重庆旅游发展迅速，但旅游商品却滞后于整个旅游业的发展。通过对重庆旅游商品市场的调查研究，本文主要从经营者、旅游商品本身及其营销环节等三个角度，分析了重庆旅游商品的市场现状，有针对性地提出了几点开发策略，以期为重庆旅游业发展提供一些有益的启示。     

On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting with NARX neural networks

Daily and weekly seasonalities are always taken into account in day-ahead electricity price forecasting, but the long-term seasonal component has long been believed to add unnecessary complexity, and hence, most studies have ignored it. The recent introduction of the Seasonal Component AutoRegressive (SCAR) modeling framework has changed this viewpoint. However, this framework is based on linear models estimated using ordinary least squares. This paper shows that considering non-linear autoregressive (NARX) neural network-type models with the same inputs as the corresponding SCAR-type models can lead to yet better performances. While individual Seasonal Component Artificial Neural Network (SCANN) models are generally worse than the corresponding SCAR-type structures, we provide empirical evidence that committee machines of SCANN networks can outperform the latter significantly.     

Cross‐sectional Restrictions on the Spot and Forward Term Structures of Interest Rates and Panel Unit Root Tests

In this paper we examine the stationarity of all the rates comprising the USD, GBP, DM and JPY spot and forward term structures. Instead of focussing on short maturity interest rates, as most other papers do, we perform a detailed analysis of the whole range of spot and forward interest rates of the 4 main currencies. We investigate the issue of stationarity within the framework of an equilibrium interest rate model such as Vasicek (1977), that defines the cross-sectional and time series properties that interest rates of various maturities must satisfy. We show that within a one-factor interest rate model, such as Vasicek, all interest rates are restricted to exhibit the same mean reverting behaviour. This restriction allows us to apply more powerful panel unit root tests. This methodology increases considerably the number of observations available and as a result the power of the unit root tests. The higher power of these tests allows us to demonstrate that there does exist mean reversion on the spot and forward US interest rates and the forward DM and GBP interest rates.     

The Lead-Lag Relation Between Spot and Futures Markets Under Different Short-Selling Regimes

We examine the lead‐lag relation between index futures and the underlying index under three types of short‐selling restrictions on stocks in Hong Kong. Our results indicate that lifting short‐selling restrictions can enhance the informational efficiency of the stock market relative to the index futures. We also investigate the impact of two market characteristics, market conditions and the magnitude of mispricing on the lead‐lag relations under different short‐selling regimes. Our findings suggest that if we remove restrictions, the contemporaneous price relation between the futures and cash markets becomes stronger particularly in the falling market and when the cash market is relatively overpriced.     

体验经济下许昌八柏冢景区发展规划探讨

许昌市是一个悠久的历史文化名城,八柏冢景区像一块幽静的处女地镶嵌在许昌市区城北,整个景区既有幽静的环境、庄严的寺庙、雄伟的冢墓,又有优美的传说和葱郁、古老、奇特的树木,是精华荟萃的休闲胜地。对八柏冢景区的旅游资源优势进行分析的基础上,同时结合体验旅游的大趋势和八柏冢景区的实际特点,提出了八柏冢景区旅游发展定位及资源开发策略。     

基于STM32的太阳模拟器控制系统设计

聚焦型太阳模拟器应用于光热发电相关试验,主要由风冷系统、光学系统、机械系统、控制系统组成。为了消除系统的人工安装误差、减小光斑调整误差,设计了基于STM32处理单元,结合PID算法,采用RS485通信标准,以液晶触摸屏为输入输出单元的太阳模拟器控制系统。该系统主要包括氙灯光强度控制、氙灯阴极温度控制、氙灯单元俯仰、平移控制等模块。通过对控制系统的搭建,实现了光斑面积与焦平面的位置调整,以及氙灯阴极温度的检测与控制,有效解决了多光源系统焦点光斑汇聚重合的问题。     

不同类型旅游景区经营模式探讨

旅游业是国民经济的重要产业,开发旅游资源,发展旅游产业,可以增加旅游目的地财富。旅游景区是旅游产业的核心要素。景区类型是影响景区选择哪种经营模式的重要因素之一,不同类型的旅游景区应选择适合自己的经营模式。     

大型焊接工程结构施工过程中的焊接质量控制

阐述了大型工程结构现场施工过程中焊接质量控制的基本内容和方法,针对焊接过程中不同阶段的质量控制事项进行相应描述与分析,并就相关问题提出相应的处理措施,为大型焊接工程结构焊接质量的控制提供了一定的方法。     

基于混合多项式模型的韶山红色旅游需求人数预测

基于三次和四次多项式拟合模型。针对韶山红色旅游景区旅游需求人数预测问题,提出了混合多项式拟合预测模型．该模型可以解决信息呈递增趋势的问题,结果具有一定的可信度．将该模型与灰色预测模型GM（1,1）进行比较,结果表明,混合多项式拟合预测模型的平均相对误差明显要低于GM（1,1）模型,且计算代价更小．     

长株潭城市群风景林建设的战略路径

长株潭城市群风景林建设具有良好的发展空间,不仅是提升城市群生态品位的必然选择,也是建设＂两型社会＂的重大举措。但从总体上看,长株潭城市群的资源消耗和环境承载力等制约因素仍然是长株潭城市群风景林建设的重大瓶颈。因此,努力破解风景林建设的制约瓶颈,科学定位长株潭城市群风景林建设的总体规划和生态配置。